Global Retail Sales to Shrink 3% This Year

Worldwide retail sales of light-duty vehicles this year are likely to fall 3% to 92.1 million units, says Jeff Schuster, head of global forecasting for LMC Automotive.

Deliveries through the first half of 2019 sagged 7% to 45.2 million cars, pickup trucks, crossover vehicles and vans, primarily because of a 6% downturn in China. Schuster predicts global light-vehicle production will decline 2% to 91.9 million vehicles.

He says all major markets will see declining retail sales volume this year. One exception is western Europe, where demand is likely to be flat.

Still, forecasting is tricky because of uncertainty about trade policy. If the Trump administration imposes its threatened 25% tariff on cars from Europe and Japan, the sale of many as 750,000 vehicles would be at risk, Schuster says.